RISING tensions in the Middle East are expected to pose only a temporary challenge to the Philippine economy, with potential upside opportunities emerging for some sectors, according to economist Ronilo Balbieran.
Speaking at the MCCI Economic Forum titled “Navigating the Middle East Crisis and Its Economic Impact,” on Monday, March 23, 2026, Balbieran said current oil-driven uncertainties should be viewed in context, noting that similar shocks in the past have been absorbed by market adjustments.
“This is a short-term, temporary problem… based on the frameworks that we believe,” he said, citing supply-and-demand dynamics that eventually stabilize prices and availability.
Balbieran explained that while higher oil prices can initially disrupt supply chains and drive up costs, they also incentivize producers to increase output and encourage consumers and businesses to adjust usage.
“The law of supply tells us that if the price is higher, entrepreneurs will find a way to supply more,” he said, adding that demand typically softens as prices rise, helping rebalance the market.
Not all bad news
Despite concerns from transport and logistics operators over rising fuel costs, the economist emphasized that the situation is not uniformly negative.
“It’s not all bad news for everyone. Some are actually smiling right now, some are actually very sad,” Balbieran said.
He pointed out that higher oil prices are accelerating shifts toward energy efficiency and alternative technologies, including electric and hybrid vehicles, as well as greener logistics solutions.
“All of a sudden, our dream of greener technology… will happen,” he noted, as businesses become more open to adopting electric vehicles and fuel-saving innovations.
Car enthusiast and Talisay Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Carl Cabusas, in his recent Facebook post, said there are already close to 900 pending orders for a single electronic vehicle brand in Cebu alone.
The Electric Vehicle Association of the Philippines, in a GMA News report, said inquiries about electric vehicles have risen sharply amid surging fuel prices.
It noted that what used to be a three-day waiting time for an EV has now stretched to around two to four weeks due to increased demand.
Economy remains resilient
Balbieran underscored that the Philippines is in a stronger position today compared to past oil crises, supported by robust dollar reserves, diversified energy sources, and steady inflows from overseas Filipinos.
He said the country’s economic fundamentals remain intact, allowing it to withstand external shocks without tipping into crisis.
“The Philippine economy has been okay… and in the medium and long run, we will be more okay,” he added.
Strategic response needed
Rather than panic, Balbieran urged businesses to use the disruption as a strategic inflection point—to reassess operations, invest in efficiency, and explore emerging opportunities tied to energy transition and new technologies.
“This is the time for us to reflect and strategize,” he said, noting that periods of volatility often lead to structural improvements and new growth areas.
While short-term pressures are expected, particularly for fuel-intensive sectors, the broader outlook suggests that the current Middle East tensions may ultimately drive innovation, diversification, and resilience across the Philippine economy. / KOC