Pagasa declared that Cebu and Central Visayas are experiencing a dry spell, defined as three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, rather than a drought as previously described by some local officials.
Weather specialist Mark Gales clarified that a drought is only declared when way-below-normal rainfall persists for three consecutive months, or when below-normal rainfall continues for a period of five consecutive months.
Rainfall in Central Visayas is forecast to return to near-normal levels this July, although Pagasa projects that dry spell conditions may potentially return between December 2026 and the first quarter of 2027.
CEBU is experiencing a dry spell, not a drought, as the province continues to record below-normal rainfall, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said.
Pagasa Visayas weather specialist Mark Gales, during an online press conference, said Central Visayas has been under dry spell conditions since June after recording three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall.
“For the past three months, most localities in Central Visayas experienced below-normal rainfall,” Gales said.
The clarification came after several local officials described the prevailing dry conditions as a drought.
Pagasa classifies prolonged rainfall deficiency into different categories based on the duration and severity of below-normal rainfall. A dry spell is declared after three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall or after two consecutive months of way-below-normal rainfall, with rainfall more than 60 percent below the average.
Meanwhile, a drought is declared when way-below-normal rainfall persists for three consecutive months or when below-normal rainfall continues for five consecutive months.
A dry condition occurs when an area experiences two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall, with rainfall levels 21 percent to 60 percent below the average.
Gales said rainfall conditions in Central Visayas, including Cebu and Bohol, are expected to improve in July, with near-normal rainfall forecast for the month.
“We are expecting near-normal rainfall for the month of July,” Gales said.
However, Gales said dry conditions or dry spells may return toward the end of the year, with possible dry spell conditions expected from December through the first quarter of 2027. / DPC