THREE weather systems continue to affect the country, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) Sunday, Nov. 16, 2025. These are the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the shear line and the northeast monsoon, locally known as amihan.
Pagasa said no tropical cyclone is inside or near the Philippine Area of Responsibility. It added that the chance of cyclone development in the next three to five days remains low.
ITCZ to bring rains to Mindanao, Visayas
The ITCZ, the convergence of air from the northern and southern hemispheres, is bringing widespread rain to the central and southern regions. Moderate to at times strong rains persist in Caraga, Soccsksargen, parts of the Zamboanga Peninsula and Northern Mindanao.
Palawan and the Visayas may also experience cloudiness and rain due to the ITCZ. Pagasa warned residents in Mindanao to watch for flash floods or landslides in areas that have seen continuous rain.
The ITCZ is expected to remain active in the coming days, though its effect may weaken later in the week.
Shear line, amihan to affect Luzon
The shear line, the boundary of cold air from the amihan and warm air from the Pacific, is bringing rain to Aurora province.
The amihan is prevailing over Northern Luzon. It brings weak to sometimes moderate or heavy rains to the Cordillera and Cagayan Valley regions. The Ilocos Region may experience isolated light rains.
Pagasa said the Amihan may strengthen from Tuesday through Thursday. This could lead to stronger winds and possible gale warnings for Northern Luzon.
Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon will have warm weather during the day. Localized thunderstorms may form in the afternoon or evening. The likelihood of widespread rain is smaller than the previous day. Forecast temperatures in Metro Manila range from 24 to 31 degrees Celsius.
Sea conditions
No gale warning is in effect. Still, moderate to rough seas are expected in Northern and Central Luzon due to the Amihan. The rest of the country will have slight to moderate seas.
Pagasa reminded operators of small vessels to take precautions, especially during localized thunderstorms that can produce rough coastal waters.
Weather updates, rainfall advisories and flood information are available on Pagasa’s website, panahon.gov.ph. / KAL