As I write this, the world is watching a war unfold in real time. The United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. The Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil passes — has been effectively closed. Oil prices quickly surged past US$90 a barrel, from about $70 before the conflict. Today, oil is around $109 and some forecasts say it could reach $200 if the situation persists or worsens.
Supply chains are being rerouted. Markets are rattled. And nobody really knows how long this will last.
This is not abstract geopolitics. This hits businesses here at home. Everything, especially petroleum-based products, have ridiculously gone up in prices already. Transportation, electricity, food, packaging and necessities are affected.
And this is a reminder of something I learned the hard way over many years in business: The best way to stay optimistic is to prepare for the worst.
1. Hope is not a strategy
Early in my entrepreneurial journey, I operated mostly on positive thinking or optimism. I believed that if we worked hard enough, things would work out. Sometimes they did.
But I also learned, painfully, that good intentions and high hopes are not enough. Markets shift. Crises arrive without warning. Covid-19 proved that to all of us. I have sat across the table from situations I never imagined I would face.
The businesses that survived — including ours — were the ones that prepared, not just hoped.
Hope is essential. Every entrepreneur needs optimism. But hope without preparation is just wishing.
2. Scenario planning is a leadership discipline
One of the most valuable habits I have developed is asking a simple question: What is the worst that could realistically happen here?
Not to dwell on it. Not to be paralyzed by it. But to name it clearly and decide in advance how we would respond.
Investor confidence is under pressure. War-risk surcharges have risen. Energy costs are climbing. For us in the Philippines, this means higher fuel costs, rising prices, and tighter consumer spending.
Have you mapped out what that looks like for your business?
What happens if sales drop 30 percent?
What if costs rise 25 percent?
What expenses can you cut?
What projects can be delayed?
How much cash do you need to survive?
When you have already thought through the worst, you make better decisions under pressure. You don’t panic. You execute.
3. Preparation is an act of respect
Here is what I have come to believe deeply: Preparing for the worst is not pessimism. It is responsibility.
It is respect for the people who depend on you: your team, your family, your partners, your customers.
Preparation says: “I take this responsibility seriously enough to be ready.”
Leaders who prepare give their organizations something rare and precious — the gift of steadiness when things go wrong.
And things will go wrong. They always do.
Final thoughts
We cannot control what happens in Tehran, Tel Aviv, or Washington. We can only control how ready we are when the shockwaves reach us.
So plan for the best. Work toward the best. But prepare quietly, seriously, and deliberately for the worst.
Because the leaders who endure are rarely the luckiest.
They are the most prepared.