THE Philippine peso sank to P60.1 against the US dollar on Thursday, March 19, 2026, amid continued tensions in the Middle East that have pushed global oil prices higher.
The peso’s slide past the 60-per-dollar level could persist — or weaken further — depending on how the conflict involving Iran unfolds, according to business leader and entrepreneur Steven Yu, who warned of mounting pressure on both consumers and businesses.
“The peso to dollar rate has pierced the 60 level and this may largely hold or weaken further depending on the progress of the Iran war,” Yu said.
He noted that the US dollar has emerged as the biggest winner since the conflict began, with US stocks and bonds also posting stronger-than-expected performance. This divergence, he said, has intensified pressure on emerging market currencies like the peso.
Yu, who is engaged in the trading and distribution business, said a prolonged conflict would keep the peso under strain as the Philippines grapples with rising oil prices and higher costs of imported goods.
“As the war drags on, the peso will remain weak, having to cope with higher prices of oil and other imported supplies,” he said.
The depreciation is expected to significantly erode consumer purchasing power while raising operating costs for businesses. Yu warned that firms are now navigating a difficult environment marked by rising expenses and slowing demand.
“This will be an extremely challenging time for consumers and businesses as consumer purchasing power is significantly impacted,” he said. “Businesses are faced with multiple headwinds characterized by increasing operational costs and slowing demand.”
Compounding the problem is the challenge of securing fuel supply amid global disruptions.
“The supply of fuel remains critical, and the government is exerting their best effort to procure from other sources,” Yu said. “However, sources like South America entail very high shipment costs. And with this urgent need, we are in a vulnerable position to accept higher costs.”
Yu emphasized that while supply continuity is essential, it comes at a steep price.
“Expensive fuel is better than no fuel. But the inflationary impact is devastating to businesses and consumers,” he said.
Some companies, he added, may be forced into difficult decisions.
“Some sectors will be faced with the decision to either shut down to conserve resources or continue operating at a loss,” Yu said.
He urged both households and firms to adopt more conservative financial strategies.
“Consumers and businesses will need to significantly tighten their belts and find alternative methods to stay afloat,” he said.
Yu pointed out that the impact will vary across sectors. The information technology-business process outsourcing (IT-BPM) industry could benefit from a stronger dollar, as revenues are largely dollar-denominated. Meanwhile, export-oriented industries may see mixed outcomes.
“As to BPMs, the strong dollar will be beneficial to the sector. The effects on the export sector will vary across industries,” he said. “While the strong dollar is a positive to the sector, the changing dynamics of world demand and raw material availability will determine their final predicament.”
He also flagged potential risks to overseas Filipino worker (OFW) remittances if Middle Eastern economies slow down due to the conflict.
“As the Middle East economies ground to a halt, OFW remittances will also be affected,” Yu said.
Given these factors, Yu warned that the Philippine economy could face heightened volatility in the months ahead.
“With all these, the Philippine economy is in for a roller coaster volatility and will be the most affected country in Southeast Asia,” he said. / KOC