CEBU’S retail sector is entering 2026 with a cautious, largely flat outlook, as weak consumer spending, delayed government projects and lingering uncertainty continue to weigh on sales, an industry group said.
“The trend is still wait-and-see,” said Robert Go, spokesperson for the Philippine Retailers Association–Cebu Chapter. “No one is expecting strong sales growth in the early part of 2026.”
Retailers said 2025 ended far weaker than expected after sales slid sharply from September to December, a period that typically delivers the year’s strongest performance. Go said spending on non-essential items such as clothing, household goods and personal care products dropped, while food sales remained steady.
December sales, usually buoyed by bonuses and holiday spending from mid-month, only picked up in the final three days before Christmas, leaving full-year sales largely flat compared with 2024, he added.
Consumer demand has been constrained by tight household finances, with even farmers and fisherfolk cutting back on purchases, Go said. The slowdown has also dampened business confidence, with no major new retail openings in Cebu as investors adopt a defensive stance amid concerns over corruption and policy uncertainty.
Challenges, opportunities
Looking ahead, Go, founder and chief executive officer of Prince Retail Group, which owns Prince Hypermart, said challenges for 2026 include reduced government spending due to unresolved budget issues, stalled infrastructure projects and a lack of liquidity among consumers. A weaker peso could also push up prices of manufactured goods, as higher input costs are passed on through smaller packaging or higher retail prices.
Opportunities may emerge in the second half of 2026 if fiscal issues are resolved, infrastructure spending resumes and subsidies are restored, he said.
Retailers are also hoping for spillover benefits from a series of regional meetings tied to Asean events, many of which will be hosted in Cebu, including tourism-related gatherings early in the year and major business and leaders’ meetings later on.
“Hotels and tourism could improve and create some ripple effect,” Go said, adding that stronger economic performance in neighboring countries could support holiday travel and modest retail demand in Cebu. (KOC)