NEWS reports Thursday, August 1, 2024, said it was "official": Cebu City Councilor Nestor Archival Sr. -- City Council majority floor-leader and No. 1 vote-getter in the north district -- will run for mayor, with former city mayor, ex-congressman Tomas Osmeña as his vice mayor in the May 2025 elections.
The occasion, birthday party last July 30 of Tomas and his wife Margot, made the political announcement more celebratory (a large cake from
Archival shouted "YES" on its top). And it was official, as both Nestor and Tomas publicly sealed the plan to run in the presence of BOPK personalities.
But it cannot be called final, particularly to Tomas himself, BOPK founder who calls all the shots in the group. Tomas Osmeña has made no secret of conducting surveys to determine "viability" of a candidate or team of candidates in his party. Viability, a BOPK official once told me, is the capacity to win over the rival for the same post.
THE current Nestor-Tomas pairing is based only on initial surveys or assessments, using present "conditions, circumstances." Rivals, who have also not finalized their own plans, may pull a surprise. Public sentiment or temper and issues may change.
Asked by broadcaster Jason Monteclar in a Facebook video interview (released March 4, 2024), if his team-up with Archival is final, Tomas Osmeña said it is not and shouldn't be final because politics is "fluid." The ground in Busay today might not be the same a few months from now, there might be cracks, or a figure of speech to that effect.
So it's still a test balloon, this Archival-Osmeña tandem. In or before the first week of October, the BOPK tandem could still be TNT (Team Nestor-Tomas) or some other initials or acronym.
BOPK hasn't had a good run in the past two elections. Tomas Osmeña lost his bid for mayor in 2019 to Barug's Edgardo Labella; so did his wife Margot's race for the same post against Mike Rama in 2022. Two defeats in a row, with rival Barug as the dominant party, must tell something. Would a third match yield a different result?
Archival served as vice mayor to Labella from December 11, 2015 to February 8, 2016, both because of Rama's suspension. When Archival ran for vice mayor to Tomas Osmeña in 2016, Tomas won but Archival lost to Labella.
Broadcaster Jun Arigo (with commentaries on dyCM and dyKC) said Friday, August 2, Archival is "unbeatable" as councilor in Cebu City north, even topping in the last two elections, but he may not make it for a higher post. No. 1 councilor in 2022: 119,456 votes. No. 1 councilor in 2019: 123,466 votes. But didn't win in 2016 as VM: Archival's 222,337 votes against Labella's 252,201).
In the race for House seats, BOPK's choice for the north district -- as of the birthday-party benchmark -- is Councilor Mary Ann de los Santos who always wins as barangay captain or city councilor but doesn't have luck in seeking a higher post. She lost in her past bids for mayor, vice mayor, and congresswoman. Would she break the string of losses, this time in her new quest for a House seat?
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NOT then congressman Luigi Quisumbing (2010-2016) who refused, arguing that removing Mandaue City from the sixth district would "make orphans" of Cordova and Consolacion towns. (It did.)
Not then congresswoman Nerissa Soon-Ruiz (1992-1998, 2001-2010) who was reported to have shown no interest in making her home city a separate district for her home city but helped Lapu-Lapu City become one. She couldn't cite lack of time as she served the House for 15 years.
Not Efren Herrera (1998-2001) who filed a bill but failed to pass it. Herrera blamed a Cebuano senator (most likely Serge Osmena) who opposed the move in the Upper House.
Not Enmarie "Lolypop" Ouano-Dizon (2019-2022) who wasn't yet a congresswoman when the law was eventually enacted in 2019; she was in fact its first immediate beneficiary.
DESERVING the credit are Jonas Cortes (2016-2019), who as congressman filed the bill in the House, and Juan Edgardo "Sonny" Angara (2013-2024, having resigned last July 18 to become education secretary) who, as chairman of the Senate committee on local government, pushed for its passage there.
Then President Rodrigo Duterte signed it into law (Republic Act #11257) on April 5, 2019 and its first representative, Lolypop Ouano-Dizon, was elected in 2019 and served until 2022, succeeded by another woman, Daphne Lagon, the incumbent.
Finding a strong supporter in the Senate was now Mayor Jonas Cortes's luck. Having a heavy blocker in Serge Osmena, also a Cebuano, was Herrera's misfortune.