WHAT SET OFF TALKS ABOUT A CEBU SENATOR. Cebu Governor Gwen Garcia and eight other governors from the Visayas regions have pushed to form a “One Visayas Bloc.” Last August 7, 2024, local news media picked up a report from the Capitol-owned Sugbo News that the governors from Iloilo, Leyte, Eastern Samar, Siquijor, Guimaras, Aklan, Negros Occidental, and Bohol have agreed to form the bloc and picked Garcia as their leader “if the bloc will become a reality.”
Clearly still a plan but the news set off speculation that Governor Gwen is making the moves in a possible run for the Senate in the May 2025 elections. That would fit in with the common dismay among Cebuanos about the absence of a senator from Cebu for almost a decade now and the popular wish that a Cebuano would finally fill that void in the Senate.
INTENTION ON VISAYAS BLOC. Garcia promptly tried to shoot down that kind of talk. At a press-con on the same day, she said the creation of a One Visayas Bloc didn’t “signify an intention to run for higher office” and, now on her second term as governor, she would seek a third term in 2025. The Visayas Bloc, she said, would be useful in “disaster mitigation” in the Visayas and would symbolize unity among the regional leaders.
Whatever the purpose, the Visayas bloc could serve it.
Guv Gwen’s denial hasn’t squelched the speculation. A theory -- proposed by, among others, broadcast commentator Jun Arigo in his DYCM and DYKC programs that Facebook carries -- is that another Garcia would run for governor, especially if no strong rival to the Capitol post would emerge, and thus Gwen would be free to seek a Senate seat.
LAST CEBUANO IN THE SENATE. The last time a Cebuano sat in the Senate was in 2016, or eight years ago, when Cebu’s Sergio Osmeña III completed his third term in the 16th Congress (2013-2016).
After that, for the three successive Congresses already, Cebu has had zero representation: 17th, 18, and 19th, covering the years from 2018 to 2025. Not even counting the 14th Congress, 2007-2010, when Serge Osmeña had to sit out reelection because of the term limit and there was no senator from Cebu.
Serge Osmeña was considered the last Cebuano senator standing before his reelection attempts failed. How about four-time senator Vicente Sotto III? Though Tito Sotto, Senate president from 2018 to 2022, was a descendant of the Cebuano Sottos (Vicente and Filemon), he is deemed not to have endeared himself to Cebuanos who see him as never having taken roots in Cebu, being born in Manila and resided in Quezon City. Lawyer-Freeman columnist Josephus Jimenez, in a February 16, 2023 article titled “Remembering the 15 illustrious senators from Cebu,” didn’t include or even mention Tito Sotto.
Serge -- grandson of former president Sergio Osmeña, brother of Tomas Osmeña, and cousin of brothers Lito and Sonny Osmeña -- was a three-time senator, from 1995 to 2007, then 2010 to 2016, or a total of 18 years.
Senators serve six-year terms with a maximum of two consecutive terms. Serge was reelected for his first 12-year stint but broke his second string, losing in two attempts, in 2016 and 2019. It could be because Serge had seemed, in the late Freeman editor Jerry Tundag’s 2012 assessment, “a nominal Cebuano more than anything else. He didn’t bother to campaign in Cebu and probably didn’t “rub elbows with fellow Cebuanos” since his last win in 2010, Tundag wrote.
OUR SENATORS, BEFORE THERE’S NONE. The senators from Cebu, when Cebu Province was a stand-alone province and designated the 10th district out of 12 senatorial districts, were Celestino Rodriguez and Filemon Sotto (1916- 1922); Sergio Osmeña Sr. and Celestino Rodriguez (1922-1925); Sergio Osmeña Sr. and Pedro Rodriguez (1925-1931); Sergio Osmeña Sr. and Manuel Briones (1931-1935); Mariano Jesus Cuenco and Vicente Rama (1942-1946).
Under the Republic: Mariano Jesus Cuenco and Vicente Sotto (1946-1949); Mariano Jesus Cuenco, who became Senate president, and Manuel Briones (1950-1953); Manuel Briones and Mariano Jesus Cuenco (1954-1957); Mariano Jesus Cuenco (1958-1961); Mariano Jesus Cuenco and Alejandro Almendras, who later moved to Davao (1962-1965); Serging Osmeña and Alejandro Almendras (1966-1969); and Serging Osmeña, Sonny Osmeña, and Rene Espina (1970-1973).
After the unicameral Congress during martial law: Sonny Osmeña and Ernesto Herrera (1987-1992; 1992-1995); Marcelo Fernan, who also was Senate president, Ernesto Herrera and Serge Osmeña (1995-1998); Serge Osmeña (1998-2001); Sonny Osmeña and Serge Osmeña (2001-2004); Serge Osmeña (2004-2007); and Serge Osmeña (2010-2013; 2013-2016).
COMPARING CEBU WITH OTHER AREAS. Cebu in the past -- that is, before 2013 -- had two senators for many years, at least one in some years, and even three in two Senate terms. Cebu had three senators during the 1970-1973 term, two Osmeñas (Serging and Sonny) and Rene Espina, and during the 1995-1998 term, Cebu had Marcelo Fernan, Ernesto Herrera and Serge Osmeña.
After 2016 -- in today’s 19th Congress as the most recent example -- Cebu, with five million people, has no representative in the Senate. Comparing with other areas, Atty. Jimenez cited in his 2023 column on senators, Taguig City has two, the Cayetano siblings; Las Piñas has the Villar mother and son; San Juan has the Jinggoy Estrada-JV Ejercito half-brothers; Cavite has two, Bong Revila and Ted Tolentino; Region 10 has two Koko Pimentel and Juan Miguel Zubiri, and Region 11 has two, Bato de la Rosa and Bong Go.
POPULARITY SURVEYS, THEN ACTUAL VOTING. Governor Gwen or any other Cebuano politician for that matter would wish to seek higher office, especially the Senate. Publicly expressing that wish, is another matter. One has to consider “winnability” before talking about running for the Senate.
For the 2013 elections, Gwen Garcia initially tossed her hat in the Senate race but took it back. On September 20, 2012, Vice President Jojemar Binay said Governor Gwen was dropping out and would run for the House instead. She did and handily won a seat representing Cebu’s third district.
What must have prompted Gwen Garcia to pull out of the Senate race was her failure to make it to the “magic circle” in the surveys, the pre-election tier before the actual voting next year. The early polling has become an elimination phase, in which the senatorial aspirant must jostle to be in the top 12 to 20 “winnability” list, a voter preference rating based on awareness/name recognition and likelihood of being voted for.
The latest such survey, conducted last July, didn’t yield lists that include personalities other than nationally known names such as the Tulfos, Rodrigo Duterte, Ping Lacson, Tito Sotto, former Manila mayor Isko Moreno, Leni Robredo, Imee Marcos, Kiko Pangilinan, and the like. The big question: How would Governor Gwen, an unbeaten politician in Cebu, and other highly qualified aspirants fare with the likes of wannabes bearing “household names” known across the country?
THE CHALLENGE. After joining the race, there’s the hard work of winning it. A Visayas bloc would help secure a slot in the ticket of a major party, most likely the administration party. That may even boost ratings in the pre-election survey.
The tougher phase of course will be how to land among the 12 senators who join the 24-member Senate on June 30, 2025. Usually, the pre-election survey gets it right, which has made it a heavy influence on the party when it picks its Senate slate.