Storm-hit food supply pushes Central Visayas inflation

Storm-hit food supply pushes Central Visayas inflation
CEBU. Aerial view of Sitio Common in Barangay Bacayan, Cebu City, along the Butuanon River, as of November 15, 2025, following the onslaught of Typhoon Tino where 13 lives were lost, including children last November 4, 2025.Photo courtesy of Kirby Yu Bun-an
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INFLATION in Central Visayas remained the fastest in the country in December, driven largely by weather-related food supply disruptions following a typhoon that caused widespread flooding in parts of the region late last year, official data showed.

Data from the Philippine Statistics Authority released Tuesday, Jan. 6, 2026, showed Central Visayas posted a 3.8 percent inflation rate in December 2025, the highest among all regions for the fifth straight month. The region also recorded the highest annual average inflation outside Metro Manila in 2025 at 2.5 percent.

Regional inflation was fueled by sharp increases in food and non-alcoholic beverages, which rose 8.2 percent in December, accelerating from 3.5 percent in November.

Inflation is the sustained increase in the general level of prices of goods and services over time, which reduces the purchasing power of money. This means that the same amount of money buys fewer goods and services than before.

Disruption on food production

Economic officials cited Typhoon Tino (Kalmaegi), which struck Cebu and neighboring provinces on Nov. 4, triggering massive flooding in low-lying and agricultural areas. The storm disrupted food production, damaged transport links and delayed market deliveries, tightening local food supply in the weeks that followed.

At the national level, headline inflation edged up to 1.8 percent in December from 1.5 percent in November, driven mainly by weather-related food pressures but still within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) forecast range. Inflation was significantly lower than the 2.9 percent recorded a year earlier.

The December outturn fell within the BSP forecast range of 1.2 percent to two percent, reinforcing expectations that price pressures remain manageable.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages nationwide rose 1.4 percent year on year in December, accelerating from 0.1 percent in November. Clothing and footwear inflation also quickened to 2.2 percent, while slower price increases in housing, transport and restaurants helped cap overall inflation.

Food inflation rebounded to 1.2 percent from a 0.3 percent decline in November, driven by a surge in vegetable prices to 11.6 percent from four percent as supplies were disrupted. Prices of onions, eggplants and pumpkins rose sharply, while fish inflation increased to nine percent, partly due to limited import arrivals.

These pressures were partly offset by slower inflation in meat products. Meat inflation eased to three percent from 4.2 percent, as fewer African swine fever cases pulled pork inflation down to 4.8 percent, while surplus supply slowed chicken inflation to 0.7 percent. Rice prices remained subdued, posting a 12.3 percent deflation.

Other major commodity groups recorded slower or declining price movements. Housing, electricity, water and gas and other fuels slowed sharply to 1.1 percent in December from four percent a month earlier, while transport inflation fell to negative 1.1 percent from five percent in November.

Core inflation, which excludes selected food and energy items, was steady at 2.4 percent in December, lower than 2.8 percent a year earlier.

For 2025 as a whole, average inflation eased to 1.7 percent, sharply lower than 3.2 percent in 2024. The BSP said inflation averaged below the lower end of its target range during the year, mainly due to earlier declines in rice prices. Inflation is projected to settle within the three percent plus or minus one percentage point target range in 2026 and 2027, with expectations remaining well anchored.

Weakened outlook for domestic growth

The BSP’s Monetary Board said the outlook for domestic growth has weakened further amid softer business sentiment, governance concerns and uncertainty over global trade policy. It said domestic demand should recover gradually as monetary easing feeds through the economy and public spending improves, adding that the easing cycle is nearing its end and any further moves would be limited and data-driven.

Economic managers said policy coordination would remain focused on tempering price pressures.

“Despite global headwinds and domestic challenges, the Philippine economy has remained resilient against inflationary pressures due to the government’s timely and targeted interventions,” said Arsenio M. Balisacan, secretary of the Department of Economy, Planning, and Development.

The government plans to sustain the downward inflation trend through prudent fiscal and monetary coordination and structural reforms, including a P297.1-billion allocation for agriculture in the 2026 national budget to boost productivity and strengthen food security, Balisacan said.

To manage energy-related price pressures, the Department of Energy is accelerating the completion of 200 power generation projects to ensure committed capacity comes online on schedule and meets safety and reliability standards. (KOC)

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