By Renester P. Suralta
The current war involving the United States and Israel against Iran has had profound and far-reaching consequences that extend well beyond the immediate conflict. Such a confrontation would reshape geopolitical dynamics, affect regional stability in the Middle East, influence global economic structures and alter international alliances for years to come.
The most immediate and visible consequence of a U.S.-Israel war against Iran would be the exacerbation of instability in the Middle East. Iran, a key regional power, maintains influence over various non-state actors and allied militias in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, Iraq and Yemen. A direct conflict could inflame proxy wars across these nations, leading to widespread violence and humanitarian crises. The destruction of infrastructure, mass displacement of civilians and increased sectarian tensions would deepen regional instability.
A weakened Iran following a war could alter the regional power balance, enabling actors such as Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt to increase their influence. However, this shift would not necessarily stabilize the region, as rivalries among Sunni and Shia powers and intra-Arab disputes could intensify, increasing the risk of further conflicts. Alternatively, if Iran retains significant military and political leverage, it may adopt a more radical approach, emboldening proxies and increasing asymmetric tactics against US and Israeli interests.
Iran sits on some of the world’s largest oil and gas reserves, and the Persian Gulf is a critical chokepoint for global energy shipments. This war would likely disrupt oil production and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, causing volatility in global oil prices. Prolonged instability could lead to increased energy costs worldwide, impacting global economic growth. Countries heavily dependent on Middle Eastern oil, especially in Asia and Europe, could face energy shortages or increased costs. For instance, in the Philippines, in less than a week, prices of gas and commodities soared. Gasoline rose by P10/liter and diesel by P20/liter. Some unscrupulous businessmen have taken advantage of the situation, and the government seems helpless.
Engaging in a war against Iran would test the limits of U.S. and Israeli foreign policy. While both countries consider Iran a significant threat due to its nuclear ambitions and regional activities, this direct military confrontation could strain their international relationships. Allies in Europe, Russia, China and even some Middle Eastern countries might criticize or oppose the conflict, leading to diplomatic isolation or realignment. For the US, a new war could drain military and economic resources, potentially undermining its ability to respond to other international challenges.
One of the gravest and most enduring impacts of war would likely be the increased risk of nuclear proliferation in the region, with potentially destabilizing global security consequences. Iran’s nuclear program has been a central point of contention. Military conflict might accelerate Iran’s nuclear ambitions, either as a deterrent or out of desperation. Moreover, other countries in the region, fearing instability and security threats, might pursue their own nuclear capabilities, triggering a regional arms race.
A US-Israel war against Iran would have complex and enduring consequences that transcend military outcomes. Policymakers must weigh these long-term implications carefully, as the costs of war could far outweigh the immediate strategic gains, potentially undermining peace and security both regionally and globally.