EL NIÑO is coming and although its strength remains undetermined, countries such as the Philippines should take early action and invest in resilience to prevent avoidable losses later, according to a United Nations (UN) report.
The UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (Escap) in a recent article singled out Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Timor Leste as among the countries in the region with a history of strong El Niño events, urging them to prepare in advance despite uncertainty over how devastating the phenomenon might be.
“El Niño is likely to return by mid-2026 and could be strong. According to the World Meteorological Organization, it could emerge as early as May-July 2026, with several national hydrometeorological agencies in Asia and the Pacific already issuing alerts,” the report said.
Unfortunately, climate change is now interacting with long-term warming trends and increasing risks for these countries, Escap said. For now uncertainty surrounds the approaching El Niño, but while forecasts will improve in the coming months, it is important to look back at the previous impacts to plot where risks are likely to concentrate.
“Past events have triggered major humanitarian crises, driving drought, food insecurity and public health emergencies across Asia and the Pacific,” said the article.
Strong events in 1971-1973, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998 triggered widespread droughts, forest fires and vector-borne diseases, such as dengue, across South and Southeast Asia and the Pacific.
“Risk intensity is highest where exposure overlaps with underlying vulnerabilities caused by poverty, food insecurity and malnutrition, as well as heavy dependence on subsistence farming,” said the report.
The 2015-2016 El Niño is the strongest of this century. The joint Escap and Asean report, “Ready for the Dry Years,” states that during this event, more than 70 percent of Southeast Asia’s land area experienced drought, exposing over 200 million people to severe drought at its peak.
“The implication is clear: waiting for certainty can increase exposure to avoidable losses. Historical evidence and current signals already provide a sufficient basis for early, no-regret action,” said the report.
Vulnerable countries can do at least three things: turn climate forecasts into actionable decisions on the ground; undertake early investment in resilience building; and strengthen coordination across sectors.
The report suggests harnessing near-real-time data and analytics from advanced satellites to guide targeted preparedness and help make localized decisions, such as where water stress will emerge, where crops are likely to fail, and which communities are most at risk.
Early financing calls for advancing social protection, support to farmers, and better water management to reduce long-term costs and protect development gains.
Meanwhile, coordinated responses across sectors, including agriculture, water, energy and public health, will enable faster and more efficient actions with benefits that extend beyond a single event. / PHILEXPORT NEWS AND FEATURES
