* The Visayas Grid is projected to return to normal supply status by Sept. 11, 2026, after enduring 73 consecutive days of yellow and red alerts due to severe generation outages.
* The recovery depends on Aboitiz-led Therma Visayas Inc. returning two repaired coal-fired units to service on Aug. 30 and Sept. 11, alongside continued cross-regional electricity imports from Luzon and Mindanao.
* Mandaue Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Barbara Gothong-Tan noted unpredictable outages threaten commercial operations, highlighting the urgent need for reliable baseload power to stabilize the network.
THE Visayas Grid is projected to return to a normal supply status by Sept. 11, 2026, ending a prolonged stretch of grid instability, provided major power plants return to service as scheduled and neighboring regions maintain sufficient electricity exports. According to the National Grid Corp. of the Philippines (NGCP), the system has endured yellow and red alerts for 73 consecutive days due to sudden generation outages that stripped away the required operating reserves.
Power grids rely on reserves to absorb unexpected spikes in demand or sudden equipment failures. When available capacity drops close to peak demand, the system enters a yellow alert. If available capacity falls short of demand and necessary reserves, a red alert is declared. During red alerts, distribution utilities are forced to implement rotational brownouts to prevent a complete collapse of the power grid.
The prolonged fragility of the Visayas supply was underscored on Sunday, Aug. 16, when a yellow alert was declared from 5 p.m. to 10 p.m., as available capacity of 2,525 megawatts (MW) barely covered the peak demand of 2,480 MW. The evening prior, Saturday, Aug. 15, the grid dipped into a red alert between 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. when available capacity stood at 2,350 MW against a 2,475 MW peak demand.
Unplanned generator breakdowns have been the main driver of the shortfall. In August, four power plants experienced forced outages while 15 others operated at reduced or derated capacities, knocking out 806.4 MW of total capacity from the Visayas.
Crucial to the recovery timeline is the return of two large coal-fired units operated by Aboitiz-led Therma Visayas Inc. (TVI), which experienced main turbine failures starting in May. Energy Undersecretary Mario Marasigan confirmed that both units required extensive repairs. TVI 1 and TVI 2 are scheduled to come back online on Aug. 30 and Sept. 11, respectively. In addition, authorities are evaluating the Toledo Power facility following an unexpected tripping, while assessing a potential target return within the month.
Cross-regional power transfers have played a decisive role in preventing broader blackouts. The Mindanao-Visayas interconnection facility typically supplies 400 MW to the Visayas during afternoon hours and up to 450 MW at night, complemented by roughly 250 MW imported from Luzon. Marasigan noted that without these continuous transfers, the Visayas would face consistent red alert conditions.
However, supply constraints in Mindanao have periodically choked those power transfers. Mindanao experienced its own yellow alerts from Aug. 10 to 14 due to rising local demand and widespread plant outages, including a maintenance shutdown at GNPK 2 and an emergency stop at GNPK 1 caused by a boiler tube leak. By Aug. 13, Mindanao had 17 plants offline and eight operating at reduced output, keeping 719.8 MW away from its grid.
The recurring power warnings have forced local commercial sectors to adapt to operational risks. Mandaue Chamber of Commerce and Industry president Barbara “Bambi” Gothong-Tan noted that unpredictable outages threaten continuous operations, risk damaging industrial equipment and inflate operational overhead.
“Both TVIs will be up and running by September,” Gothong-Tan said, adding that businesses are securing renewable energy contracts and setting up internal contingency protocols while awaiting grid normalization. She also pointed out that while renewables help, the region requires adequate and reliable baseload power — plants that run continuously — to stabilize the network, as solar alone cannot handle the load requirements.
To build long-term resilience beyond the September plant restarts, government energy officials are preparing auxiliary supply options. Preparations are underway to transfer a 50-MW power barge to the Visayas, with permitting, testing, and commissioning targeted before the end of the year, alongside evaluations of additional generation offers.
While the expected restart of the TVI units offers a clear timeline for relief, the NGCP reiterated that full normalization by Sept. 11 hinges strictly on the plants meeting their repair schedules without further delays in cross-island imports. / KOC