GLOBAL trade in goods grew faster than expected in the first quarter of 2026, as surging demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-enabling electronic components offset the impact of the Middle East conflict, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Seasonally adjusted global merchandise trade volume rose 1.9 percent quarter on quarter and 3.2 percent year on year. In value terms, merchandise trade increased two percent from the previous quarter and 11 percent from a year earlier.
The WTO said the annual growth was notable because first-quarter 2025 trade had been boosted by the frontloading of North American imports ahead of anticipated tariff increases.
Trade in AI-enabling goods surged more than 40 percent year on year in dollar terms, more than offsetting the effects of the Middle East conflict, which began in March and disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher energy prices also weighed on net fuel-importing economies.
Asia led global trade growth, driven by AI-related investment. Its exports and imports rose 12.9 percent and 14.6 percent, respectively, year on year, while quarter-on-quarter growth reached 5.5 percent for exports and 7.2 percent for imports.
China, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan drove much of the region’s export growth, reflecting increased intra-regional trade in AI-related goods.
Asia recorded the strongest merchandise export growth among regions at 20 percent year on year, led by precious metals and gold, copper, machinery and electrical machinery and ores. Africa followed with 14 percent growth, supported by precious metals, copper, fertilizers and ores.
Among the five largest exporters, South Korea posted the strongest growth at 38.4 percent, followed by Hong Kong at 38.3 percent, the United States at 15.2 percent, China at 14.7 percent and the European Union at 9.2 percent.
The WTO expects the prolonged Middle East conflict to weigh further on regional trade by yearend, while Asia and North America are likely to maintain stronger growth. The global outlook will depend on whether the AI-driven expansion can continue to offset the economic fallout from the conflict. / PHILEXPORT NEWS AND FEATURES
