THEAssociation of Southeast Asian Nations is gaining the economic and strategic weight to strengthen its position as a global power. Still, the bloc needs stronger regional cohesion and institutions to turn that weight into sustained global influence, according to a study by the Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
The study, “Asean’s Ascent: A Global Power in the Making,” by PIDS Supervising Research Specialist Mark Anthony Barral and Senior Research Fellow Francis Mark Quimba examines whether Asean can move beyond its traditional role as a regional facilitator and become a more independent center of influence in an increasingly multipolar world.
Asean’s economic transformation provides a strong foundation for that ambition. Its combined gross domestic product grew from $118 billion in 2000 to $3.37 trillion in 2023, while its population surpassed 685 million, giving the bloc significant economic and market weight.
Statistical analysis also points to Asean’s growing potential to move toward global-power status.
Using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator model, the study found that the probability of Asean being classified as a “core polar” — a category associated with established centers of global power — rose as high as 0.89 during the middle of the 24-year observation period. At the same time, its probability of remaining in the emerging-economy category fell below 0.50.
The study cautions, however, that the findings do not mean Asean has already achieved global-power status.
A second model offers a more conservative assessment, showing Asean increasingly associated with emerging-power status while still retaining the potential to move toward core global-power status.
The study identifies economic size as the strongest factor associated with polar status, followed by governance and corruption control, military capabilities, research and development, digital connectivity, trade openness and the rule of law.
“Asean trusts its centrality,” the study states, describing the bloc’s position as “earned from trust and neutrality among major powers” that allows it to “act as a bridge among competing polars.”
Beyond economic and military strength, Asean’s strategic advantage lies in its centrality and neutrality. These allow the bloc to maintain ties with competing major powers and serve as a bridge among them.
Asean-led platforms, including the East Asia Summit, Asean Regional Forum and Asean Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus, give member states mechanisms for dialogue, cooperation and regional problem-solving.
But economic weight alone does not translate into collective power.
Asean’s hard-power capabilities remain more limited than those of established major powers. Its combined military spending increased from $24.9 billion in 2000 to $65.6 billion in 2023 but remained well below that of major powers such as China.
The study recommends deeper economic integration to strengthen Asean’s global position. This includes faster implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, greater harmonization of supply chain standards and improved digital connectivity.
It also calls for stronger regional cooperation in maritime security, disaster response, digital governance and sustainable development.
ASEAN should also diversify its strategic partnerships beyond the United States and China by strengthening ties with India, the European Union, Africa and Latin America, the study said. Such diversification would give the bloc greater strategic options while allowing it to preserve its central role amid major-power competition.
The findings come as the Philippines chairs ASEAN in 2026, allowing the country to push initiatives that strengthen regional integration, institutional capacity and Asean’s strategic autonomy amid intensifying geopolitical competition.
The study argues that Asean does not need to copy traditional models of major-power dominance. Instead, it can build on its ability to convene, negotiate and foster cooperation.
Its global trajectory, the study said, will depend on combining those strengths with greater internal coherence and strategic capacity.
“Asean’s ascent as a global power will depend not on replicating traditional major-power models, but on developing a uniquely Southeast Asian form of influence grounded in inclusivity, cooperation, and collective resilience,” the study concludes. PR
