Results of the latest monthly Business Expectations Survey (BES) of the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) show improved business confidence for the year ahead.
The year-ahead confidence index (CI) rose from 38.6 percent in January 2026 to 51.1 percent in February 2026. Businesses expect steady consumer demand throughout the year. Firms also see higher public works spending and ongoing governance reforms supporting economic growth in 2026.
The economic outlook for the next quarter likewise improved. The quarter-ahead CI increased from 33.3 percent in the previous survey to 37.4 percent. Businesses are counting on favorable weather conditions and typically strong summer revenues to drive near-term growth. They also expect government spending to pick up as investor confidence recovers.
Hiring intentions for the quarter ahead and year ahead also strengthened. This suggests resilient labor market conditions through 2026. Meanwhile, expansion plans in the industry sector eased as fewer firms reported intentions to expand. Some respondents expressed optimism in the short term but remained cautious about their expansion plans.
Business inflation expectations remain firmly anchored. Although quarter- and year-ahead averages are below the BSP’s 3.0-percent target for 2026, they remain within the ± 1.0 percentage-point tolerance range.
The February 2026 BES was conducted before the recent Middle East conflict began. The sustained recovery in business confidence and stable inflation expectations will therefore depend on how long the conflict lasts and how it affects the domestic economy.
The monthly BES provides a more frequent assessment of business confidence. This enables the BSP to adjust its policy response more proactively to fast-changing domestic and international developments. PR