The Israel-Hamas conflict is predicted to become a significant threat to global security, and it has been affecting the peace and security in Mindanao and Bangsamoro for decades. If the conflict escalates, it could result in a regional war and a global recession. The support of the West for Israel is expected to lead to protests in the Muslim world, fuel radicalization, and increase the likelihood of terrorist attacks.
The Middle East is facing the possibility of war due to the re-ignition of the Israel-Palestine conflict in October 2023. The Hamas surprise attack on Israel, resulting in numerous casualties and the abduction of hostages, led to war and the further destruction of Gaza by the Israeli government, affecting the lives of innocent Palestinians. Israel's doctrine of deterrence has failed, and the Israeli Defense Forces are aiming to eliminate Hamas' military and governing capabilities in Gaza and elsewhere.
Iran, Turkey, and other Muslim countries in the Middle East are now intervening to help the Palestinians. According to news reports, to prevent Iran and its proxies from interfering, the US has deployed military personnel, including a nuclear submarine and two aircraft carriers, in the Eastern Mediterranean. The US is also strengthening defenses in the Gulf region by installing missile defense systems in various countries.
Other Western governments are also supporting Israel in this conflict. Still, there is increasing pressure from their citizens to restrain the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and their actions that violate humanitarian and international laws. Both Muslim and non-Muslim communities have been protesting and calling for economic sanctions against Israeli and Jewish companies.
Security analysts see that the Israel-Hamas Conflict will have wide-ranging consequences, impacting the global threat landscape. This conflict will create divisions among nations and societies, affecting geopolitics, economics, and strategic interests. The polarization and fragmentation resulting from this conflict will pose a significant risk to national and international security. Furthermore, if the Israel-Hamas war escalates, it could potentially lead to a global recession.
In the local setting, the Conflict can potentially contribute to the radicalization of the Bangsamoro people, especially among the youth. Our youth have learned about the historical grievances of the Bangsamoro. Like the Palestinian conflict narrative, it is deeply intertwined with religious, political, and territorial disputes. Moreover, the conflict in both contexts has strong religious and national dimensions, which can further fuel radicalization. These deep-seated religious and national identities can contribute to radicalization, as they fuel a sense of righteousness and the belief in the necessity of defending one's community.
Preventing the conflict from worsening and finding a lasting solution for the Israel - Palestinian people and the Bangsamoro will require strong leadership with a clear vision. Unfortunately, we lack national and global leaders that can address these conflicts. We need leaders who can truly understand the situation and work for sustainable and inclusive peace in Mindanao and the rest of the world.