WHEN the Iraq war broke out in 2003, we were up in the highlands of Piagapo, Lanao del Sur to conduct interviews with former combatants. As the first bombs fell on Baghdad, my colleagues and I got a call from our security officer instructing us to leave the area immediately.
We were told that terror groups operating in the area who were sympathetic to the cause of the Iraqi government could carry out attacks against civilians. Fearing for our lives, we hurriedly packed up, boarded our service vehicle, and sped down the hinterland community.
Our country’s distance from the heart of conflict can lull us into a false sense of complacency. We think that wars in the Middle East or other parts of the globe will never reach our shores. This mindset, however, is far from reality.
The escalating war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States is not just another minor outbreak of violence. It is an eruption of simmering tensions that have been building up for more than four decades among the main actors.
And like many crises in that volatile part of the world, its repercussions have not been confined within Iran’s borders and are now being felt across the globe, with nations now reeling from the disastrous effects of the war.
For many years, the conflict between Iran and Israel was fought in the shadows wherein cyber-attacks, covert operations, assassinations and proxy battles were used by both sides as instruments to inflict fear, animosity and chaos.
However, the ongoing war in Iran, which has spilled over to neighboring nations, has brought the conflict from the shadows out into the open. And the risks have multiplied and so are its consequences, especially on the global economy.
The tremors from the Middle East are now being felt most at the gas pump. About 20 percent of the world’s oil passes through the narrow waterway known as the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption in that corridor can cause oil prices to soar.
This does not bode well for the Philippines. Our country imports most of its fuel from the region. Higher oil prices mean higher transport costs, more expensive electricity, and rising prices for food and basic goods. Inflation will not be too far behind.
Another major concern is the plight of Filipino workers in the Middle East, many of whom are based in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Kuwait. As the war continues to escalate, ensuring their safety has become a race against time.
We have read of reports of Filipino seafarers who have been caught in the crossfire. Their ships, which mostly carry cargo and bunker cannot cross the Strait of Hormuz for fear of being hit by Iranian missiles. Neither can they abandon ship lest their safety be further compromised.
As the Philippine government draws out plans to evacuate our OFWs, it may also have to create a safety net for our kababayans who face the prospect of losing their high-paying jobs, as overseas remittances from the Middle East to significantly decline.
As global shipping lanes get disrupted, trade slows down. When ships move cautiously or are forced to reroute to avoid danger, the cost of transporting goods rises. As a result, imported food items, electronics and raw materials become more expensive.
For export-driven economies across Southeast Asia like the Philippines, this poses a serious dilemma. As fuel prices rise, the overhead costs for Filipino businesses will significantly increase, resulting in lower profits and the implementation of belt-tightening measures.
This will have a domino effect as downstream industries and ancillary service providers, which will also feel the brunt of surging oil prices. They too, will have to shoulder the burden of higher operating costs and lower profit margins.
At this critical juncture, we need to confront the broader geopolitical implications of the conflict in Iran. This is what happens when major powers are directly involved in war, as global tensions rise, governments raise their defense budgets, and strategic alliances shift.
The Middle East lies at the center of global energy supply, international shipping routes, and competing geopolitical interests. That is why every conflict that happens there carries worldwide implications.
When missiles are fired hundreds of thousands of miles away, their impact can eventually be felt in household budgets, shipping lanes, and labor markets thousands of miles away. They are a grim reminder that wars are never truly distant in a globalized economy.
Because every time we gas up, line up at the grocery store, and pay our electric bills, we will feel the dent in our wallets and debit cards.