Some portions of eastern Mindanao will not experience drought spells during the first quarter and peak of El Niño next year based on the seasonal forecast and climate outlook of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST).
The latest data was announced by DOST Secretary Renato Solidum during the Malacañang press briefing on December 19, this year.
Based on the report, Davao Region as well as Caraga will not be affected by the dry conditions which will persist until the six months of 2024 and is expected to peak in April.
“The peak of El Niño in terms of drought will be April 2024, which is slightly different from the forecast last week or two weeks ago that it would be May. A possible rainfall which is slightly normal or below normal from May to June and hence we can actually still prepare for the effects of El Niño as spoken last week,” Solidum said.
On the other hand, in an interview with Lolita Vinalay, Chief Meteorologist Officer (CMO) of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration-Davao Region (Pagasa), she confirmed that almost the entire area in the region will receive a great amount of rainfall compared to other areas in the country particularly in Luzon, Visayas, Palawan.
“Kung i-compare sa ubang lugar, panahon sa January to April, kulang jud silag ulan or below normal ra ang ulan nila (If compared to other places, during January to April, they lack rain or their rain amount is below normal),” the official said on Friday, December 21.
Currently, at least 63 provinces in the country will experience drought while dry spells will be felt by 12 provinces.
DOST explained that a dry spell occurs when monthly rainfall is 21–60% less than average for three months in a row.
For example, two consecutive months of precipitation that is significantly below normal or above 60% may be referred to as a "dry spell," and three consecutive months of precipitation above 60% will be considered as drought.
To prepare the country against the effects of the phenomenon, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. co-chaired by the DOST has activated the El Niño Task Force in line with the executive order (EO) released by the President himself.
Under the EO, the government considers five critical sectors - food, energy, health, water security, and public safety. DEF