THE Philippine seas are currently experiencing moderate to rough conditions as the northeast monsoon, locally known as “amihan”, reaches its peak phase. Cooler air intrusions and persistent northeasterly winds have intensified wave activity and sea currents, producing larger swells and rougher coastal waters, particularly along northern and eastern seaboards.
In Mindanao, the maritime environment is shaped not only by amihan but also by easterly winds, localized thunderstorms, and thunderstorm clusters, creating a complex interplay of forces that challenge navigational safety and vessel stability.
These meteorological factors coincided with at least three major maritime incidents in January 2026, collectively claiming more than 20 lives across Luzon and Mindanao regions.
As of January 28, 2026, there is no active Low Pressure Area (LPA) within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), indicating that these hazardous conditions are driven primarily by monsoonal dynamics rather than tropical cyclone activity.
Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (DOST-Pagasa) Davao Complex Station Chief Meteorological Officer Lolita Vinalay explained to SunStar Davao that the strengthened northeast to north winds associated with peak amihan have significantly intensified sea conditions, especially along seaboards facing the Pacific Ocean.
"We are currently in the peak of the Amihan season, the northeast monsoon that characterizes the cooler months in the Philippines. This seasonal wind system significantly influences our coastal waters, generating stronger northeasterly winds, larger swells, and rougher sea conditions, particularly along exposed northern and eastern seaboards,” she said in mixed-language.
Vinalay added that the combination of persistent monsoonal winds and local weather drivers produces waves larger than those typically observed in January, creating hazards for small and medium-sized vessels navigating open water.
In Mindanao, the situation is more complex, as localized thunderstorms, easterly wind surges, and clusters of convective storms periodically amplify sea turbulence and generate moderate to rough coastal waters.
Even in the absence of a low-pressure system, these conditions have been sufficient to disrupt maritime travel, force temporary suspensions of small-boat operations, and contribute to a cluster of maritime incidents in recent weeks.
Sarangani Bay-MBCA Amejara tragedy
The first major incident unfolded on January 19, when the recreational dive boat MBCA Amejara capsized in the Davao Gulf off Sarangani, Davao Occidental. The vessel, reportedly carrying 15 passengers, mostly recreational divers and crew members, departed without proper clearance and encountered rough seas and strong currents.
The combination of peak amihan swells and localized easterly wind bursts overwhelmed the boat’s stability.
Search-and-rescue operations began immediately, involving the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), Philippine Navy, and civilian volunteers.
Christopher Bulig, a crew member, was rescued after drifting at sea for two days, but six bodies have been recovered wherein four of these have been already identified. Authorities continue searching for the remaining missing passengers, using drift modeling and coordinated aerial and maritime reconnaissance.
The incident underscores the vulnerability of small recreational vessels in peak monsoon conditions, particularly when proper safety protocols and clearances are not followed.
West Philippine Sea–M/V Devon Bay Capsizing
On January 23, the Singapore-flagged cargo vessel M/V Devon Bay capsized near Scarborough Shoal, approximately 140 nautical miles west of Pangasinan. The vessel was carrying iron ore bound for China when it experienced technical difficulties exacerbated by rough seas.
The combined forces of monsoon-driven waves and ocean currents are believed to have destabilized the vessel, which is particularly vulnerable due to the liquefaction risk of moisture-laden bulk cargo.
Seventeen crew members were rescued by the China Coast Guard, with 15 handed over to the PCG, including the remains of the two deceased. Four crew members remain missing, and ongoing SAR operations involve PCG and Philippine Navy assets.
Basilan–M/V Trisha Kerstin 3 Ferry Disaster
Another major maritime tragedy occurred on January 26, when the roll-on/roll-off passenger ferry M/V Trisha Kerstin 3 sank off Baluk-Baluk Island, Basilan, while en route from Zamboanga City to Jolo, Sulu. The ferry was carrying 317 passengers and 27 crew members. Reports indicate that rough seas caused by peak amihan and localized storm-enhanced winds caused the vessel to list and eventually submerge.
Rescue operations saved 316 passengers, while 18 deaths were confirmed, and 10 individuals remain missing. PCG deployed technical divers and remote-operated vehicles (ROVs) for underwater search, and the Department of Transportation (DOTr) ordered the immediate grounding of all Aleson Shipping passenger vessels, citing the need for a comprehensive safety audit.
The audit covers safety compliance, vessel condition, crew qualifications, and operational risk assessments, with potential criminal and administrative accountability for both ship owners and government regulators.
Fluvial procession motorbanca capsizing
On January 25, a motorbanca MBCA Vher Marie capsized in Barangay Maytalang I, Lumban, Laguna, during the Feast of San Sebastian fluvial procession. The incident occurred despite PCG personnel providing maritime security, demonstrating how even inland waterways are vulnerable to turbulent conditions when monsoonal winds amplify river currents and cause vessel instability. All 48 passengers were rescued safely, and investigations are ongoing to ensure the safety of future maritime events in inland waterways, especially during large-scale religious or public gatherings.
Science behind the turbulence
Vinalay explained that peak amihan produces three primary hazards for maritime travel: cooler air masses, persistent northeasterly winds, and enhanced wave activity along exposed coastlines. In northern and eastern Luzon, wave heights have reached levels well above seasonal averages, while Mindanao experiences a more complex combination of local thunderstorm clusters interacting with monsoon flow, producing moderate to rough seas even in otherwise sheltered areas.
According to her, these conditions are not tied to tropical cyclones or low-pressure systems but rather the seasonal dynamics of the northeast monsoon. The sustained wind flows generate surface currents and ocean swells capable of overturning smaller vessels and challenging navigation for medium-sized commercial ships, particularly in areas where topography amplifies wave energy, such as Sarangani Bay, western Mindanao, and the Scarborough Shoal region.
This month’s maritime disasters illustrate the critical need for science-informed navigation, adherence to safety protocols, and the integration of meteorological forecasting in operational planning. Even vessels with valid safety certificates face risk if operational procedures fail to account for monsoonal sea dynamics and localized weather variability.
Outlook and complications
Vinalay indicates that peak amihan conditions will persist through February 2026, gradually weakening toward March as part of the seasonal cycle. Mariners are advised to exercise extreme caution, and authorities continue to review vessel compliance, enforce stricter safety protocols, and monitor localized weather disturbances. The recent string of maritime disasters underscores the intersection of weather science, vessel engineering, human decision-making, and regulatory oversight, emphasizing that high sea risk persists even without a tropical cyclone.
Communities across the archipelago, from Luzon to Mindanao, are experiencing the combined effects of rough seas, cooler temperatures, and disrupted maritime travel, highlighting the vital role of meteorological monitoring and coordinated disaster response.
No psychic predictions of maritime incidents
Notably, known psychics on social media, such as Rudy Baldwin, have not posted any predictions of maritime incidents in the Philippines this year. However, scientific forecasts have warned of rough seas, prompting concerned government agencies and officials to advise the public to avoid sea crossings during periods of persistent strong winds. DEF