DUE to the emerging cold phase of La Niña in the country, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) has forecasted that more typhoons from the Pacific are expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) beginning November this year.
Pagasa said in an interview with dxDC-RMN Davao that by the end of October, more typhoons will hit the Philippine landmass and have a higher chance of making landfall on the island of Mindanao.
"Dahil sa La Niña phase pa rin po yung binabantayan natin at malamig at malakas pa rin po yung hangin dito sa Pacific, kaya malaki po yung posibilidad na mas marami po yung bagyo na mabuo ngayong November," Allan Revo, Pagasa-Davao weather specialist said on Thursday, October 24, 2024.
(Because we are still monitoring the La Niña phase and the wind is still cold and strong here in the Pacific, there is a high possibility that more typhoons will form this November).
The state weather bureau previously reported that the La Niña phenomenon in the country could begin between September and November and successive tropical cyclones are the first indications of La Niña's effects. Meanwhile, it is predicted to last until the first quarter of 2025.
“La Niña is favored to emerge in September, October, and November 2024. Anytime within the period with a 71% chance and ine-expect natin na magtutuloy ito hanggang sa (and we’re expecting it to persist until) first quarter of 2025 or during January, February, and March,” Pagasa weather specialist Joanne Mae Adelino said during a press conference in September.
This year, nine tropical cyclones have entered or developed inside PAR and another four to seven tropical cyclones will enter the country in the last three months of 2024.
Pagasa reiterated not to underestimate the weak La Niña as this will bring intensified winds and more rainfall.
“Kailangan emphasize, historically, base sa mga datos ng Pagasa, kapag weak La Niña mas maraming nararanas na Super Typhoon na bagyo kapag September, October, November, December. So may dalawang similar condition na weak La Niña tayo pero nandoon yung tatlo hanggang apat na typhoon at super typhoon category,” the agency said.
(We need to emphasize that, historically, according to Pagasa data, there are more Super Typhoon category storms during a weak La Niña in September, October, November, and December. So we have two similar conditions where there is a weak La Niña but there are three to four storms that could fall under the typhoon and super typhoon category).
In meteorology, the cooling of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean is known as the La Niña phenomenon. It often lasts one to three years and happens every two to three years. DEF