VICE President Sara Duterte remains the preferred choice of Filipino adults in a hypothetical two-way presidential matchup against Naga City Mayor and former Vice President Leni Robredo, according to the latest national survey by Momentum Research.
The inaugural issue of The National Momentum Survey, a non-commissioned study, found Duterte leading Robredo by 15 percentage points, with 54 percent of Filipino adults saying they would vote for Duterte and 39 percent choosing Robredo.
Meanwhile, the remaining seven percent of Filipino adults remain undecided about who they would vote for as president in the 2028 national elections, with five percent unsure and two percent declining to answer.
Of the two, only Duterte has announced her presidential bid, even though the filing of certificates of candidacy is still more than a year away.
Robredo, on the other hand, has publicly ruled out a national run in 2028. Many of her political allies, however, continue to encourage her to reconsider.
Regionally, Duterte leads Robredo in three of the four regions covered by the national survey, while Robredo takes the lead in the Rest of Luzon. In the region, 55 percent of Filipino adults say they would vote for Robredo in this hypothetical two-way presidential matchup, compared with a third who would vote for Duterte.
The Rest of Luzon also has the largest share of undecided respondents, with eight percent saying they are unsure and another four percent declining to answer.
Elsewhere, Duterte’s share is relatively similar in Metro Manila (56.4%) and the Visayas (56%). Her strongest support, however, comes from Mindanao, her political stronghold, where nine in 10 Filipino adults say they would vote for her as president in 2028.
Robredo, meanwhile, has a sizable share of support in the Visayas, where four in 10 Filipino adults say they would vote for her, followed by over a third in Metro Manila. Her lowest share is in Mindanao, where only eight percent say they prefer her over Duterte as the next president.
The pattern differs when voting preferences are examined by political faction. While Duterte leads in three of the four regions, Robredo leads in two of the four political factions included in the survey.
Among the four factions, Duterte only holds a majority among pro-Duterte respondents (93%).
Robredo, meanwhile, leads among pro-Marcos respondents, with two-thirds saying they would vote for her over Duterte (27%).
Her lead is especially pronounced among pro-opposition respondents, who identify themselves as aligned with Robredo and her political allies. Among this group, 82 percent say they would vote for her.
Pro-opposition adult Filipinos are those who align themselves with former Vice President Leni Robredo, Sen. Risa Hontiveros, Sen. Bam Aquino, and their allies.
One factor that helps explain this pattern is the composition of the survey sample. Roughly 29 percent of Filipino adults identify as pro-Duterte, more than twice the share of those who identify themselves as pro-opposition (12%) or pro-Marcos (11%).
Nearly half of Filipino adults are Independent
Independent respondents, meanwhile, are more closely divided between the two potential candidates. While Duterte (45%) leads Robredo (41%), the gap is just four percentage points.
Another one in 10 are unsure who they would vote for, while three percent decline to answer.
This is notable because nearly half of Filipino adults (45%) identify as Independent and do not align themselves with any of the three other factions.
Despite Duterte’s 15-percentage-point national advantage in this hypothetical matchup, the narrower gap among Independents suggests that the race could possibly be tight if undecided voters develop a preference as the 2028 election approaches—and if Robredo reconsiders her decision not to run.
Conducted from July 13 to 16, the National Momentum Survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,438 Filipino adults. It has a national margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Subnational margins of error are ±7% for the National Capital Region, ±4% for the Rest of Luzon (North, South, and Central Luzon), ±6% for Visayas, and ±5% for Mindanao—all at a 95% confidence level. PR
