THE Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) warned on Saturday, November 1, 2025, that a tropical depression outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) may enter the country by Sunday morning or afternoon and could bring strong winds and heavy rains to parts of Visayas, including Cebu and Western Visayas, early next week.
As of 10 a.m., the center of the tropical depression was estimated at 1,375 kilometers east of northeastern Mindanao, with maximum sustained winds of 45 kilometers per hour near the center and gustiness reaching up to 55 kilometers per hour.
The weather disturbance is moving west-northwest at 15 kilometers per hour, with strong winds extending outward up to 280 kilometers from its center.
Once it enters the PAR, Pagasa said it will be named “Tino.” The system is expected to move westward over the Philippine Sea and may make landfall over the Caraga Region or Eastern Visayas between Monday evening, November 3, and Tuesday morning, November 4.
According to Pagasa’s tropical cyclone advisory, “This tropical cyclone is forecast to intensify until before making landfall on Monday evening or Tuesday morning. It may reach tropical storm category within 24 hours and become a typhoon on Monday afternoon or evening.”
The agency also noted that rapid intensification before landfall is not ruled out.
After making landfall, Tino is expected to cross much of the Visayas, the northern portion of the Sulu Sea, and northern Palawan before emerging over the West Philippine Sea by Wednesday morning or afternoon. A close approach over the Kalayaan Islands is also possible.
While the system is not expected to directly affect weather or sea conditions within the next 24 hours, Pagasa said Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 will likely be raised over Eastern Visayas and Caraga by Sunday.
“Based on the intensity forecast, the highest wind signal that will be hoisted is Wind Signal No. 4,” Pagasa added.
Heavy rainfall is anticipated over Eastern Visayas and Caraga beginning Monday morning, prompting the possible issuance of a weather advisory later today or tomorrow.
Pagasa further warned that rough sea conditions are likely due to the combined effects of the approaching tropical cyclone and a possible Northeast Monsoon surge.
“Rough sea condition may be experienced over the northern, western, and eastern seaboards of Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Visayas and Mindanao within the next three days,” the advisory stated. Gale warnings are expected to be raised as early as Monday morning in anticipation of very rough seas.
Storm surge warnings may be issued starting Sunday in anticipation of coastal flooding, particularly in areas expected to experience the cyclone’s peak intensity. “The highest level of storm surge warning (i.e., red warning level) will likely be issued,” Pagasa said.
Authorities urged the public, especially residents of low-lying and coastal areas, to remain alert and continue monitoring updates from Pagasa and local disaster risk reduction and management offices.
Unless an intermediate bulletin is released, the next tropical cyclone advisory will be issued at 11 p.m. Saturday. (Leo Solinap/SunStar Philippines)