MANILA – Agriculture Secreatry Francisco Tiu Laurel Jr. has directed the Masagana Rice Industry Development Program (MRIDP) alongside the Philippine Rice Research Institute and other units to be on close watch over the potential effects of the looming El Niño phenomenon on the local rice sector.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) is also in close coordination with the National Irrigation Administration, now under the Office of the President, to optimize water allocation and ensure that irrigation systems are ready to support farmers during prolonged dry spells.(DA) is bracing for the possible impact of the looming El Niño phenomenon.
This comes as the agency is also intensifying efforts to support Filipino farmers amid surging costs of farm inputs, particularly fertilizers, due to the global oil shocks brought by tensions in the Middle East.
In a statement Friday, Tiu Laurel said he has ordered preparations for the “worst-case scenario” to mitigate the El Niño’s impact on farm production, farmers' incomes and economic activity.
“It is no longer a question whether we will experience another El Niño after the 2024 episode that undermined rice harvest. The only question that needs to be answered is its intensity,” he said.
The preparation for El Niño and the drought it could trigger forms part of the broader directive of President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. to ensure food security despite geopolitical uncertainty and rising climate risks.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), there’s a 92 percent probability for a moderate to strong El Niño episode in the Philippines based on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) outlook.
Some global climate models are also pointing to a potential “super” El Niño, which can significantly reduce rainfall and strain water sources across agricultural areas due to the projected warming of up to 2.2 degrees Celsius.
Other efforts to mitigate risks include the review of rainfall projections, assessment of water availability to adjust planting strategies, possible shift to less water-intensive crops like mung beans, and accelerating deliveries of other long-term projects, such as the solar-powered irrigation systems.
Earlier, DA spokesperson Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said the DA is prioritizing the establishment of solar-powered irrigation systems to help address surging fuel and electricity costs and provide water in farms affected by drought.
The country’s peak land preparation is set from May to June, where local farmers utilize fuel for tractors, cultivators, and withers, alongside fertilizer application.
Should the surging prices of fuel and fertilizer persist until the next planting season, De Mesa said the country’s rice production may only hit 18.6 million metric tons (MMT) to 18.8 MMT, based on the DA’s Rice program projection.
This is lower than the original local rice production outlook of 20.28 MMT.
Lower production may entail an increase in rice importation to sustain a stable supply in the country, he said.
“Yung projected import nila (Their projected import) of 4 million MT can increase to about 4.8 million MT just to sustain the 85 days ending stock,” De Mesa said. (PNA)
