LPA enters PAR, may develop into tropical depression on May 24

LPA enters PAR, may develop into tropical depression on May 24
Screenshot from Pagasa video

THE low pressure area (LPA) that was spotted east of Mindanao has entered the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) and will be named “Aghon” if it develops into a tropical depression by Friday, May 24, 2024, said the state weather bureau.

In a press conference Thursday, May 23, Dr. Marcelino Villafuerte II of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said the LPA entered PAR around 5 a.m. Thursday.

He said it might become a tropical depression by Friday and may affect some parts of the Philippines.

As of 10 a.m. Thursday, the center of the LPA was located 870 kilometers east of southeast Mindanao.

Pagasa forecast the LPA to develop into a tropical depression within 24 hours, or by Friday. The weather disturbance will then move generally northwestward until Saturday, then recurve northeastward by Sunday.

“The disturbance will be nearest to Bicol-Eastern Visayas on Saturday, and is expected to mostly remain offshore but near Luzon-Eastern Visayas landmass,” Pagasa said in its advisory.

The weather bureau added that the track of the disturbance may still change due to its broad circulation as of Thursday, stressing that “uncertainty of track remains high for the first 48 hours.”

For today, May 23, Pagasa said that light to moderate with at times heavy rains are possible over Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands.

On Friday, May 24, moderate to heavy rains are possible over Eastern Samar and Northern Samar, while light to moderate rains are possible over Bicol Region, the rest of Caraga, and the rest of Eastern Visayas.

On Saturday, May 25, there might be moderate to heavy with at times intense rains over Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, and Northern Samar, while light to moderate rains are possible over Quezon, including Polillo Islands, the rest of Bicol, and the rest of Eastern Visayas.

Pagasa advised the residents of the above-mentioned areas to be vigilant against possible flashfloods and landslides.

It added that should the LPA develop into a tropical cyclone, the hoisting of tropical cyclone wind signal is not ruled out over portions of Bicol and Eastern Visayas at the initial issuance of the tropical cyclone bulletin by Friday.

Villafuerte said Pagasa could not declare yet the rainy season, as the criteria for its declaration have not been met yet.

For Pagasa to declare the rainy season, it has to see 25 millimeters (mm) or more of total rains in the past five days, and one mm of rains for three consecutive days.

At least seven out of 13 weather stations must satisfy the criteria, but Villafuerte said that as of Thursday, they do not expect the criteria to be met yet. (LMY)

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