WITH the Philippines in the early stages of both an El Niño episode and the typhoon season, Filipinos are faced with multiple threats due to the climate crisis for the remainder of 2023.
These events, which usually would not occur at the same time, could cause compounding losses and damages that would make it difficult for communities and ecosystems to recover.
This situation puts into focus the impacts of the climate crisis on food security. Without proper adaptation and mitigation solutions consistently implemented, we might start seeing some of our favorite foods and drinks disappear from markets, restaurants, and our dining tables at home.
Chocolate
We Filipinos are long known for our fondness for sweets. Chocolate, in particular, is a consistent part of many social events, from Valentine's Day and Halloween celebrations to simple break times at work or school.
The indulgence and comfort it provided was highlighted during the Covid-19 pandemic, when the country's interest in it increased and many of us sought for it to escape the realities of the lockdowns.
However, the local industry remains too small to meet the domestic demand. Being situated within the so-called "Cocoa Belt," the Philippines has the proper soil and climate conditions to grow cocoa beans, which are used to make chocolate. Yet it would be difficult to significantly increase its production with the threat of the climate crisis.
Increasing temperatures would cause disruptions in the water cycle, which in turn would make it difficult to maintain the level of humidity that allows cacao trees to grow. As a result, the "Cocoa Belt" could shrink to a smaller area around the equator.
There is already a global cocoa shortage, which would lead to higher prices for chocolate in the next few decades. Some scientists have even forecasted that cacao trees could become extinct as early as 2050, largely due to the climate crisis. While experts and producers figure out ways to avoid this scenario, the future of chocolate remains unclear.
Coffee
Coffee has long been a part of the Filipino diet and culture, in both consumption and production. The Philippines ranks as the second-largest consumer of coffee in Asia, with 80% of its citizens drinking an average of 2.5 cups every day. It is also one of the few countries with the capacity to grow all four types of coffee beans: Arabica, Excelsa, Liberica, and Robusta.
Higher temperatures would alter many stages of the coffee life cycle, which would cause it to ripen more quickly and result in a lower product quality. It would also likely lead to lower yields, affecting the global and local markets. The decline in productivity may also be worsened by other factors that are also triggered by warmer climate, such as more unpredictable rainfall and pest infestations.
These scenarios have been recognized in the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Continued global warming and the resulting changes in the climate would result in a decrease in both global coffee yields and lands suitable for its farming.
Other issues associated with the industry may further worsen said trends. Decision-makers must ensure that solutions to be implemented would not only directly address climate change impacts on the coffee production, but also socioeconomic problems such as poverty levels among Filipino farmers and their access to climate-smart technologies.
Corn
Compared to coffee and chocolate, corn is a more important part of the Filipino food culture. It is the second most important crop in the nation, with 600 thousand farming families dependent on it for their livelihood. Around 14 million Filipinos regarding it as their primary staple food, while yellow corn constitutes half of all livestock mixed feeds.
Corn ideally grows in a climate like the Philippines, with notable dry and wet seasons. This is because the different stages of its life cycle need to occur under different conditions. For example, while moderate rainfall for more than three months is suitable for better harvesting, high temperatures are more preferable during its vegetative and flowering stages.
This is why disruptions in the occurrence of dry and wet seasons would adversely affect corn growth and production in the Philippines. A local study has shown that while the extent of the impact would differ across numerous areas in the country, there would be a decline in corn yields during the wet season from 2020 to 2080 due to the climate crisis.
While its survival for the next few decades is not as perilous as coffee or chocolate, it is still vital to ensure the sustainability of corn production and consumption, especially in the Philippine context. Proper policymaking at the national and local levels, with solutions such as adjusting the calendar for planting crops, improving irrigation systems, and improved early warning systems would help mitigate adverse effects while also improving the overall agricultural sector.
We should not wait until the day we can no longer enjoy the foods and drinks we love the most before we truly understand the dangers of the climate crisis. We need to demand action from those responsible for this issue, and we also need to take action in our own sustainable ways.
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John Leo is the Deputy Executive Director for Programs and Campaigns of Living Laudato Si' Philippines, a member of Aksyon Klima Pilipinas, and the Youth Advisory Group for Environmental and Climate Justice under the UNDP in Asia and the Pacific. He has been a climate and environment journalist since 2016.