THE state weather bureau has placed the country under an El Niño watch, warning of a possible shift to drier conditions in the coming months following the end of the recent La Niña episode.
In a press statement issued Wednesday, March 25, 2026, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (Enso) is currently in a neutral phase after the La Niña event officially ended on March 9, 2026.
This neutral condition is expected to persist until the June–July–August season.
However, climate models indicate an increasing likelihood of El Niño developing as early as July to September 2026.
“An El Niño is a warm phase of Enso and is characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific. Based on the Pagasa Enso Alert and Warning System, when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño, with a forecast probability of 55 percent or more within the next six months, an El Niño Watch is issued,” said Pagasa.
The agency warned that El Niño increases the chances of below-normal rainfall across parts of the country, which may lead to dry spells and possible drought conditions.
Pagasa noted that some areas, particularly in the western section of the Philippines, may still experience above-normal rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon season. (TPM/SunStar Philippines)