MANILA – Most parts of the country will likely experience way below normal rainfall due to a very strong El Niño expected towards yearend, the head of the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Monday.
"This means 60 percent or more reduction of average rainfall in a month," PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando told the Philippine News Agency in an interview.
A moderate to strong El Niño is present in the Tropical Pacific.
The ongoing El Niño is forecast to continue until the first half of 2027, and may reach a very strong state before the end of 2026.
For September, below normal rainfall will prevail over most of Northern Luzon, and near normal rainfall over the rest of the country.
By October, below normal rainfall conditions will prevail over Luzon, the Visayas, and Caraga, while near normal rainfall is likely over the rest of Mindanao.
Way below normal to below normal conditions are expected across the country in November. Patches of near normal rainfall are forecast in some areas in Mindanao.
For December, PAGASA forecasts above normal rainfall over most of Luzon and Western Visayas, while below normal rainfall will likely prevail over most of the Visayas and Mindanao.
Servando explained that the "above normal rainfall" in Luzon in December may not be significant since it is normally dry in Western Luzon.
"Normal rainfall in December is relatively low, and this might be due to the shearline or the northeast monsoon," he said.
In January 2027, way below normal to below normal rainfall will prevail across the country, except for near normal rainfall conditions in some parts of Mindanao.
The whole country is expected to experience way below normal to below normal rainfall in February.
"The peak of El Niño will be from October to December, but impacts may vary depending on locations and the severity," Servando added. (PNA)
