PRESIDENT Digong is visiting Russia to meet President Vladimir Putin. They will learn to discover what is in each other, and it is expected that the Philippines and Russia will sweeten their bilateral relationship… business, humanitarian assistance, peace building, and transnational security.
Somehow we already know our President Digong as he presented himself during th
e presidential election and for more than six months while in office. President Vladimir Putin of Russia has been described by Gideon Rose, editor of the magazine “Foreign Affairs” as a leader who has been an economic dynamo and a basket case, an imperfect democracy, and a tightening tyranny, a constructive diplomatic actor and a serial military aggressor, sometimes all at once.
Just like in the movie, during the Cold War both Russia and the United States (US) were struggling to define their proper roles in the world. The disappearance of Soviet Union became a major geopolitical disaster, according to Putin. Former US President George H.W. Bush said that by the grace of God, America won the Cold War. “The Cold War did not end – it was won!”
For Putin, it was not working that way. The West thought that Russia would simply have a diminishing role in the world. The West was mistaken. By taking in Ukraine and Syria, Russia has made clear its intention to restore its status as a major international player. What remains unclear is how long it will be able to maintain its recent gains. That could be the reason why President Digong is going to Russia … to know deeply the Bear’s foreign policy.
We start Russian policy here. The Kremlin (Russian government) has clearly concluded that it will defend its interests close to Russia’s border. It will let the world know that the government will have a global role in drawing a line in Ukraine. Russia decided that the next place to put down the iron fist would be by Syria. I hope this will not shock President Digong considering that China is doing the same in the South China Sea.
Russia is having identity crisis. Historically, Moscow is looking at Central Asia as a chessboard and Moscow is one of the players in the Great Game for influence. In recent years, the game has changed. China (the favorite of President Digong) has poured in massive amount of money into its Silk Road Economic Belt infrastructure project and is emerging as the biggest player in the region. Russia is still dreaming to find its place in what the Kremlin refers to as “wider Eurasia.” (Is President Digong allowing Russia and China to bully the Philippines?)
Kremlin is also playing poker in its foreign policy. Russian leadership has encouraged the idea that the Soviet disintegration was merely the first step in a long Western campaign to achieve total dominance, which went on to encompass the military interventions in Yugoslavia, Iraq, and Libya and other post-Soviet countries. (It is very complicated but President Digong understands it because this is what the Manila Empire was doing to the tribal communities in Mindanao before he became president.)
Putin and most of the officials running Russia today believe that the Soviet collapse was hastened by “perestroika,” the political reform initiated by Gorbachev in the late 1980s. Gorbachev had ambition to create a different relationship with the West and the rest of the world. The Kremlin called it “new political thinking.” At first the Russians thought it to be good and was well received abroad but this “new political thinking” did not restart the Soviet economy. It was destructive because it caused the rapid socioeconomic decline. Russia concentrated more on foreign policy.
Putin is aware of the struggle of his country under his leadership. There is unrest in Russia but Putin maintained the support of Russia’s conservative. The annexation of Crimea elevated Putin’s approval rating. As of February 2016, it had remained over 80 percent for 23 months. Many Russians see Putin’s action in Crimea as correcting a historical injustice and reclaiming Russia’s status as a world power.
For his popularity, Putin is banking on Russian-backed war in eastern Ukraine and the accompanying anti-Western propaganda, Russia’s military operations in Syria, and the tensions with Turkey. The government also benefits from the sense that Putin is Russia’s only option. Up to now, The Kremlin’s “new authoritarian” practices have proved fairly effective. If you are an opposition in Russia, you could be assassinated and high-level government officials prevent investigations from digging too deep.
In his visit to the Bear’s country, President Digong will learn more. He will know that Russia’s elite is torn by feuds, but everyone pledges allegiance to Putin … so long as he remains the invincible supreme leader. President Digong may start learning from there. Leadership involves finding an opportunity and getting in front of it. Let us wait for the meeting of the Punisher and the Bear.