I HAVE been writing a ton about national politics, but what about the Cebu City version?
That Mayor Michael Rama is gunning for reelection next year is a given, and that should apply to his vice, Edgardo Labella. For a while there were talks about the Bando Osmeña-Pundok Kauswagan (BOPK) fielding the all-women M and M tandem of City Councilors Margot Osmeña and Mary Ann de los Santos for city mayor and vice mayor. But BOPK chief Tomas Osmeña, Margot’s husband, has announced he and his running mate in the 2013 polls, Joy Augustus Young, will battle the Rama-Labella pairing.
Admittedly, things can still change from now until the deadline of the filing of the certificates of candidacy months from now. The Osmeña campaign strategy involves the conduct of surveys. The results of such surveys could weaken his resolve to run for mayor. So it is still possible Margot or another person would run for mayor in his stead. Or another BOPK stalwart could replace Young as the party’s bet for vice mayor.
But let us just stay the Tommy-Joy pairing is it for the BOPK. The 2016 elections will therefore have the same feel as the 2013 version, when Osmeña and Young tangled with Rama and Labella of Team Rama. That electoral battle produced a classic. Rama defeated Osmeña by a few thousand votes while Labella won over Young by still fewer votes, the outcome known with certainty only after the count in the last several precincts.
Will the results be different in 2016? The last elections were more than two years ago and much has changed in the political setup after then. In 2013, the odds were almost even. Unfortunately for Osmeña and Young, the odds are already stacked against them.
Osmeña had a stronger political clout in 2013. He was south district congressman and enjoyed the support of majority of the city’s barangay captains and barangay councilors. The BOPK’s dominance of the city council was almost absolute. His link to Malacañang, Interior and Local Government Secretary Mar Roxas, wasn’t running for any post so had all the time in the world to help his allies in the campaign at the local level.
That meant Osmeña could still do what he does well as a politician: intimidate his political opponents and their supporters. He was even able to intimidate Roxas into giving in to his demands and, more importantly, letting go of Rama, who was then a card-bearing member of the administration Liberal Party (LP).
fter more than two years, however, Rama has consolidated his hold on Cebu City politics. He is the incumbent; Osmeña is private citizen—it’s like the champ being challenged by a retired opponent. Rama now has majority of the barangay captains and councilors. Three city councilors identified with the BOPK bolted from the party; they are posturing as independents for now but are virtually allied with Team Rama.
Meanwhile, Roxas is busy finding ways to push up his ratings in surveys on presidential wannabes after these have lagged for so long. He is also battling with Sen. Grace Poe for President Noynoy Aquino’s anointment as his presidential bet. I think that has weakened Osmeña’s ability to use his link with Malacañang to advance his political plans. He is on his own, suing City Hall functionaries instead of having them transferred.
As a consequence of all these, Osmeña’s ability to intimidate his opponents has weakened considerably. He can even no longer order around his own people.
But Rama shouldn’t get too complacent. Osmeña is still a wily opponent and has remained sharp as a strategist and campaigner. He could find ways to go around his current limitations. He can score an upset. In short, Osmeña is still Rama’s most formidable foe.
(khanwens@gmail.com)