X-Factors
San Antonio: Dylan Harper
While Harper is still a rookie, his success or struggle will dictate the energy that the Spurs will bring throughout the series. His offensive game already seems as polished as one could wish from a rookie, and his defensive IQ has steadily been building up. His scoring output has increased from 11.8 PPG in the regular season to 13.1 PPG in the playoffs, and the team is 8-4 when he scores in double figures. If he continues his upward trend in the Finals, then he can take considerable pressure off of Wemby and Fox offensively, while aiding in shutting down Brunson defensively.
New York: Karl-Anthony Towns
KAT will most definitely be the swing player for the Knicks. This season, Coach Brown has brilliantly modified his role from merely a half-shooter, half-post-up player to now a Jokić-esque one — causing his passing to vastly improve. His effectiviness as both a pick-and-pop shooter and a passer will largely correlate to the spacing on the floor. Additionally, if his outside shot consistently falls, the Spurs might need to send Wemby to close out on the perimeter— thereby opening the door for cuts and inside shots from his teammates.
How will the Knicks guard Wemby?
This is a question that all 29 teams have asked this season and, frankly, not fully answered. Wemby is one of the few players in the league who cannot be stopped outright, and merely limiting his production would already amount to progress. I would submit that the best approach to at least limiting him would be to guard him as a team and force him out onto the perimeter. This implies that they should not be shy to send other defenders outside of their centers to take turns guarding him. Since the Knicks are a hard-nosed defensive team, and the Spurs would very likely hunt for mismatches, they should be willing to send the likes of Hart, Anunoby, and Bridges to use their physicality and wrestle him out of the paint. KAT and Robinson cannot consistently guard him themselves. Hence, the Knicks would have to make a complete team effort to give him as few touches in the low post as possible. They could very well live with forcing him to be a shooter, rather than seeing him bulldoze time and again whoever contests him at the rim.
Final Prediction
The Spurs have the more talented team, but the Knicks have a deeper rotation at-large. This fact alone should allow the latter to push the series to at least six games. However, the Wemby leverage will be too heavy for them to overcome, as his mere presence on both the offensive and defensive ends has forced teams to change their game plans. Case in point was a crucial Game 7 fastbreak where Wemby’s presence alone in the paint was enough to force OKC to retreat and reset their attack. The viable approach for the Knicks to win the series is to limit him to 20 PPG or lower while still playing honest defense on Fox and Harper and then forcing other Spurs secondaries to beat them instead.
The opener may very well go to the Spurs, as they are a statistically great Game 1 team. After that, I see both teams exchanging wins in the next five games regardless of home court — and I will not be surprised to see two of those games end on a game-winning shot from each team. Ultimately, the proverbial Goliath will wind up winning. The Spurs will eventually prevail at home in a close but fairly comfortable Game 7, as they solidify their modern dominance with yet another NBA championship. Wemby starts off his pursuit of the “G.O.A.T.” title by winning Finals MVP honors at 22 years old.
Prediction: Spurs in 7
Finals MVP: Victor Wembanyama (28.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 4.0 BPG)
