THE coronavirus disease (Covid-19) reproduction in Metro Manila has dipped to below 1, which indicates the decrease in active cases, Octa research fellow Dr. Guido David said on Tuesday, January 25, 2022.

David said as of January 1, the reproduction number in the National Capital Region (NCR) was at .91, the first time since December 23, 2021.

“While this is good news and confirms a downward trend not just in new cases but also in active cases, we have to continue follow health protocols to prevent a reversal of the trend,” he said.

Reproduction number refers to the number of people being infected by one case. This is one of the indicators of Covid-19 trend.

The reproduction number was as high as six on January 2.

David said the reproduction number decreasing below 1 is correlated with a decrease in active cases, not of new cases.

He said this means that active cases may still increase even as new cases have started to decrease, “because active cases are a cumulative of new cases less recoveries and deaths.”

Duque earlier said that Metro Manila has been downgraded from critical risk classification for Covid-19 to high risk following a significant drop in its two-week growth rate from 7,225 percent to 65 percent.

He said the region’s average daily attack rate, however, further increased from 51 to 84.56 per 100,000.

He said while cases in the NCR Plus areas, which include the provinces of Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna and Rizal, were decreasing, cases in other parts of Luzon were either increasing or plateauing.

On January 24, the Department of Health recorded a total of 4,018 new Covid-19 cases in Metro Manila.

Of the country’s total active cases of 262,997, 72,382 were in the NCR. (SunStar Philippines)